I sent out the following, offhand prediction yesterday, while polling was occurring:
Regarding today's outcome; I think Obama is going to roll any state that isn't New York or California, and might eek out a win in CA anyway. I keep hearing things like "hope", and "future", and "promise"; lots of people are voting on faith, protest, and herd mentality at this point.
Romney, McCain, and Huckabee will split the states; McCain will take CA and AZ, Romney will claim the rest of the West. Paul will spoil somebody's party in Texas, Huckabee will claim most of the midsouth and southeast, with one state going to McCain and/or Romney. McCain and Romney will vie for Northeast states, with who-knows-what in New York.
How did I do? Very well, actually.
- I wasn't looking at the primaries map, and forgot Texas will vote later. My prediction still holds, though. Ron Paul is going to draw from one of the other three.
- I also forgot New Jersey was voting, but they count as New York anyway.
- Obama: rolled in any state that wasn't in the Northeast and it's really close in California. How big are Florida and Michigan (with their zero delegates) now?
- McCain: Took CA and AZ, and absolutely stomped all over New York and Connecticut, the latter was a surprise to me.
- Romney won the rest of the West.
- Huckabee won Georgia(barely), Tennessee, and Alabama; and almost won Oklahoma and Missouri. How big are S. Carolina and Florida now?
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Note that we're still seeing demographic voting here. The democrats are starting to compromise (driving Obama's national results), but the Republicans still have four candidates to choose from.
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